Didn't your mother ever tell you that you shouldn't be doing what everyone else is doing? I did. While being a sheep in the herd can be quite comfortable, it can have some very negative effects. Not studying, partying in High School, buying stocks on leverage in the tech boom, reality TV, media driven politics, adjustable rate no down liar loans, buying into the "we are running out of oil and I need a new car now", global warming, believing banks are solvent, believing in bailouts, believing the economy is in good shape, and GOLD!!!
While going with the herd can be ok sometimes, it is best done while using your very own scrutiny and judgement. While partaking in a Bubble one doesn't have enough reference to recognize they are in it. The Tech Bubble, Real Estate Bubble, Commodity Bubble, and Gold Bubble are paradigms near impossible to recognize and it takes great confidence to stand tall.
That being said, I believe I am one of a few in the Deflation camp. Most people are under the belief that the USD will continue to fall. I believe it will strengthen, especially if the Fed ever does what is right and starts increasing interest rates. A strengthening dollar means one thing, destruction of asset prices through deflation and credit deleveraging. Commodities, stocks, and asset prices will decrease and there will be no winners. The USD will become the only true safe haven.
That being said, I believe Gold is approaching a possible tipping point. It is very difficult to call because there are countries literly falling apart. As their currency takes a nose dive, gold may still appear "safe."
Here is a three year gold chart:
While going with the herd can be ok sometimes, it is best done while using your very own scrutiny and judgement. While partaking in a Bubble one doesn't have enough reference to recognize they are in it. The Tech Bubble, Real Estate Bubble, Commodity Bubble, and Gold Bubble are paradigms near impossible to recognize and it takes great confidence to stand tall.
That being said, I believe I am one of a few in the Deflation camp. Most people are under the belief that the USD will continue to fall. I believe it will strengthen, especially if the Fed ever does what is right and starts increasing interest rates. A strengthening dollar means one thing, destruction of asset prices through deflation and credit deleveraging. Commodities, stocks, and asset prices will decrease and there will be no winners. The USD will become the only true safe haven.
That being said, I believe Gold is approaching a possible tipping point. It is very difficult to call because there are countries literly falling apart. As their currency takes a nose dive, gold may still appear "safe."
Here is a three year gold chart:
The one year:
180 days with 4 hours:
180 days 1 hour:
The pattern is called a wedge. It is composed of 5-waves, all non impulsive. I believe $1266 may be the Gold high of this year. If the move is complete we should see a prolific breakdown shortly. A crash in Gold would also crash the stock market and all commodities.
As for stocks, my count is below. I believe Monday was the confirmation I needed to signify that the ten day move was over. I believe tomorrow we hit 1083 in the morning ending wave-1 down and head up for one or two days. The next leg down should help determine how deep this correction is really going to get. I still have all four longer term charts valid and in need of confirmation.
This is odd, but you're finally saying something that is legitimate, and founded in proper investment advice. Gold is for fools at this point, as oil was at anything over $80.
ReplyDeleteAs for abandoning ownership of Great American Companies, in the end those who have stayed the course and have followed the advice of PROFESSIONAL ASSET MANAGERS, or have followed the likes of Buffet and Gates, (who by the way are buying into more Great American Companies, not selling), these people who will win in the end.
Yes! Bob has a guest columnist.
ReplyDeletelol. You fail as bad as I do, and that is your profession.
ReplyDelete