I had been priced out of the housing market for a very long time, and seeing it go parabolic was just insult to injury. I remember driving down the street and seeing everyone driving Hummers and Escalades, pulling boats with decked out ski racks. And I specifically remember my co-worker telling me, "You should buy a home, real estate never loses value."
An e-mail from August 17th, 2007. While I discussed these issues extensively on www.tickerforum.org with others, this e-mail is one of my best records of my predictions. The rest became history.
From: "Bob Lindskov"
Subject: Re: MARKET = BEAR
Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 19:27:53 -0700
>I'm going to step out on a very far limb. I am looking at the DJIA
>charts right now for the year. In Edwards and Magee's Technical
>Analysis of stock trends I found quite an odd similarity to our Dow
>Jones on page 70. It is a graph of Union Carbide & Carbon in the
>UK. The graph is identical to what I see today. Union Carbide puts
>in what is called a Head and shoulders consolidation/reversal
>pattern. Oddly it finishes its pattern in October 1929.
>
>Dear God, please pray that I am wrong. Anti bank sentiment and
>distrust is increasing. Today people flooded Country Wide financial
>from their websites, phones, and in person. A significant amount of
>people started pulling their money out in fears that CFC was going
>Bankrupt. The quality of life just "feels" to good to me right now
>in Washington. Too many people are too well off. Its almost like
>we are living in the roaring 20's right now. I've lived my whole
>life trusting banks completely, but something feels amiss.
>
>Crashes occurred in 1987 and 1929. These were stemmed from distrust
>in the banking system. Everyone dove into banks to get their cash,
>but there wasn't the liquidity to even provide its customers with
>their cash requests. Wammo.
>
>I know a crash would be a 1,000,000 : 1, but for the first time in
>my life, I now feel like that outcome is actually a possibility.
>
>
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