Rangebound for a month, resolution soon

We have been rangebound for nearly a month.  I expect a resolution by the end of this week/early next week.  Whether Santa Clause shows up or not will most likely be determined by the Euro.  If the Euro/USD cross breaks 1.31, I expect SWHTF.
Breaches of 1292 to the upside and 1226 to the downside are easy lines in the sand.  Both have merit, but I would expect the Santa Clause rally to not start before an intermediate pullback........and the surprise may be that he doesn't show up this year.

As far as the full meltdown scenario goes, I will stay silent until we get back under 1100.  Current European news and spreading civil unrest may back my claims.  Unemployment near 18% and food stamp use near 20% would not normally point to "green shoots."  Unfortunately for me, the time factor and the Federal Reserve/IMF tricks are quite difficult to predict.