Nothing Important until 1260+ or 1100-

We are rangebound until 1100 or 1260 are taken out.  We are approaching overbought on the short-term outlook.  Overbought could very well extend through the end of next week.  Volume is dropping with the short term new highs, which shows weakness.

An intermediate top near 1260 is expected.

International Space Station Viewing (Seattle evenings)

It is a perfect week to view the International Space Station from Seattle.  It is as simple as going out just after sunset, staring up West, and watching it path over your head to the East.

Attached are the ideal times.  It looks like Monday evening is going to be the most ideal, weather dependent.

http://www.n2yo.com/passes/?s=25544


A good portion of non-military satelites can be tracked at:
http://www.n2yo.com/

Set your date preferences and your location, and boom it calculates orbits for you.  I have always been interested in space.  The first time the International Space Station was pointed out to me was 4th of July in Missoula, Montana.  It was so amazingly clear we could actually see the Soyuz rocket on an approach path behind it, making its docking descent.  Amazing.  My uncles still marvel how crazy it was to see Sputnik the first time. 


Enjoy!   No technical analysis this week.  ;)

Official Bear Market at a 20% or Greater Correction (sub S&P 1096 or DOW 10320)

Everyone knows it is coming.  The market action will only display the consensus of their sentiment.
It is an important week for stocks.  A Bear Market officially begins when a 20% or greater correction takes place.  The line in the sand becomes the S&P 1096 or the DOW 10320.

As far as Elliott Wave theory goes, third waves are recognition waves.  They are found at locations when people start believing differently about their current situation.  I think it is very possible that "recognition" shows up this week.  The theory points to a situation when sentiment immediately changes.  In markets, it usually occurs over night and is blamed on some global issue.  The "real money" trades futures all night.  When a six sigma event (or Black Swan) shows up, all high frequency traders hit a no bid situation.  The futures are driven down all night, and the panic spreads at the market open.  They are found at large gaps in the market that usually arent filled for very extended periods of time.

European and Asian markets have officially entered their Bear Markets.  Monday or Tuesday could be our catch up morning.  The dollar looks like it is about to surge.  If we breach the lines in the sand, I would expect a flight out of securities and into the dollar and treasuries.  Imagine a strong US dollar?    Without a strong dollar there is significant problems with our treasury and bond sales, which means are borrowing/debt game is over.  Our Federal Reserve mistakingly continues to keep interest rates artificially low.

Look for these locations to be breached.  If so, they are a DOW theory SELL signal.

For Perspective: The DOW from 1900 to present

Noting 100 years of stable linear appreciation, on a logarithmic chart, one can quickly see where we reside from the mean.

Destroying the dollar would be the only way to keep prices in this vicinity.

15 Month Bear Market ???

A drop of more than 20% suggests we have entered a Bear Market.  This morning we bounced quite near that 20% correction mark.  The previous Bear Market in 2008 took 15 months to complete.  In corrective markets, time appears to govern over price.  Knowing this, I believe this leg down will also take 15 months to complete.  It will look somewhat symmetrical to the ride up, but it will be shorter in duration, therefor have much steeper looking moves.

Pegging a price for the low in October 2012 will be near impossible for me at the moment.  Levels of sentiment and the magnitude of the lies will determine how deep this rabbit hole goes.

I do not see us getting back above S&P 1240 for multiple years.  If this next leg up pushes me out of my position at 1250, I will pack up for a considerable amount of time.

Here is my charted long term outlook.  Sentiment, global credit insolvency, and lack of Government direction, suggests the analysis is correct.

A Tuesday Stock Market Crash is on the table (torches and pitchforks if QE3)

It appears if institutions sold hard today.  Volume was very high.  I expect that the retail (home) investor went home tonight and might panic tomorrow in a capitulation sell off.  There is also and FOMC meeting, that could turn around this market on a dime, with the announcement of a Quantitative Easening #3.
They have definitely set the stage for QE3 to sneak by everyone.  With the debt ceiling discussion and the market sell off, people are going to be more apathetic accepting an inflationary QE3.  If QE3 is passed, it is another attack on the poor, with inflationary measures that protect the rich.

Say "No" to QE3.  Everything else is grand standing to push this one by you.  America will once again be robbed by our Federal Reserve.

Attached is my final count of the market top, both on a short time frame and on a three year time frame.  I believe we have definitely started the next bear market.  This one should just about crush everything and everyone.

If we crash tomorrow, we should get a very very hard bounce off the 1000 mark on the S&P.  Should be quite a rollercoaster tomorrow.  :/

Point Of No Return? (credit systems will always fail)

We are quickly approaching my beary beary Big Bear line of 1140.  At that location I think we start ripping through some serious stops, margin calls unzip, and banks start having difficulties loaning again because of asset/collateral depreciation.  A breach of 1140 would make me believe that the 2+ year rally is now over.  I would become more Bearish here, if one could believe that.  :P

I honestly can't pin down what occurs Monday.  The currencies will lead the show.  I honestly don't know if the S&P downgrade will strengthen the USD or weaken it.  If it weakens it, we could actually have a significant market rally from this location.

Below are my charts from:
3-25-11
3-31-11
4-10-11
4-18-11
These are excellent to review to see how they turned out.  I am still undecided if the technical top was early May or in July.  It will affect my count in the future.  If we breach 1140, I will start counting internal wave structure again to see if I can locate where it will bounce.  I would not be suprised to see it bounce exactly on 1140.  Once  a bounce occurs, I will be able to dial in exactly how big this move will be.  First guess is 2008 was A down, the last 2.5 years were B up, and now we are beginning C down.

Overall, a couple of my ideas/counts came pretty close.

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