Yep, too good to be true

There are so many possible counts right now, its clogging up my computer. One things is certain: Earnings are looking pretty bleak.

I think the Beast of all Beasts might just be around the corner. I show very strong resistance at the 1140 mark. This level also counts for a 61.8% fib retracement from the top. Putting an intermediate high there would also create pretty nice shoulder to short into. The swings are quite large, considering we are going sideways. This tells me there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the market. It also tells me that the fire escape door could be very very small. The Big Red trendline on the S&P futures has held for 3 months now.

If 1140 really does finish up Gold B, this move down will be one for the record books. If the building doesnt burn down after the turn, we probably have 1 more month of sideways movement. (I can't be certain of the degree of this zig-zag up we are in right now)

Too Easy?

I am pretty confident the move last Friday on Opex confirmed the intermediate top in the S&P. This count appears a little too obvious to me, which makes me nervous. If this count is correct we should see S&P 1000 by the end of next week.




Gold appears to be moving as expected too. I expect 1130 an ounce by the end of next week.



S&P Futures continue to behave reasonably in their multi month channel.

Death to Bonds???

The S&P is still holding 1100, so I will not be posting any micro EW counts until we get a trendline confirmation break to the downside.

What I will do tonight is borrow someone else's work. Someone named Daneric posted a very nice technical chart of the 30 year treasury bond, for the last 20 years. http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/


He simply, elegantly, and perfectly states, "This one chart holds the entire world's Ponzi system in place." This statement is soooo incredibly true. A break of this Bond Bull market will force interest rates to rise, will dry up the last available credit liquidity, and will crush all.

Well said Daneric.

Beware the Ides of July?

Earnings season is upon us again. This should definitely add to the volatility fun in the next couple of weeks.

The S&P fell into the 4th of July weekend as expected, with one exception. The move down was not a 5-wave pattern, but a 3-wave pattern. If this analysis is correct, it leads me to believe that we will be bouncing in the 1000 to 1100 range for the next two months.

The real play will be a break of the light blue trendlines.

On a shorter term scale, we could have finished today, but I am hesitant. When looking back at the last upward move, I see a possible repeating fractal. If it is a fractal, we will probably see a gap and crap on Friday, which will signal the next move down.

The multi-month move in the S&P futures definitely tells us that we are at a decision point. The next couple of days are very important if upward momentum is to be maintained. I have placed my bets that it wont be. North of 1100 and I am very wrong.


Gold definitely broke down as expected. I expect $1100 an ounce in very short order.