15 Month Bear Market ???

A drop of more than 20% suggests we have entered a Bear Market.  This morning we bounced quite near that 20% correction mark.  The previous Bear Market in 2008 took 15 months to complete.  In corrective markets, time appears to govern over price.  Knowing this, I believe this leg down will also take 15 months to complete.  It will look somewhat symmetrical to the ride up, but it will be shorter in duration, therefor have much steeper looking moves.

Pegging a price for the low in October 2012 will be near impossible for me at the moment.  Levels of sentiment and the magnitude of the lies will determine how deep this rabbit hole goes.

I do not see us getting back above S&P 1240 for multiple years.  If this next leg up pushes me out of my position at 1250, I will pack up for a considerable amount of time.

Here is my charted long term outlook.  Sentiment, global credit insolvency, and lack of Government direction, suggests the analysis is correct.

A Tuesday Stock Market Crash is on the table (torches and pitchforks if QE3)

It appears if institutions sold hard today.  Volume was very high.  I expect that the retail (home) investor went home tonight and might panic tomorrow in a capitulation sell off.  There is also and FOMC meeting, that could turn around this market on a dime, with the announcement of a Quantitative Easening #3.
They have definitely set the stage for QE3 to sneak by everyone.  With the debt ceiling discussion and the market sell off, people are going to be more apathetic accepting an inflationary QE3.  If QE3 is passed, it is another attack on the poor, with inflationary measures that protect the rich.

Say "No" to QE3.  Everything else is grand standing to push this one by you.  America will once again be robbed by our Federal Reserve.

Attached is my final count of the market top, both on a short time frame and on a three year time frame.  I believe we have definitely started the next bear market.  This one should just about crush everything and everyone.

If we crash tomorrow, we should get a very very hard bounce off the 1000 mark on the S&P.  Should be quite a rollercoaster tomorrow.  :/

Point Of No Return? (credit systems will always fail)

We are quickly approaching my beary beary Big Bear line of 1140.  At that location I think we start ripping through some serious stops, margin calls unzip, and banks start having difficulties loaning again because of asset/collateral depreciation.  A breach of 1140 would make me believe that the 2+ year rally is now over.  I would become more Bearish here, if one could believe that.  :P

I honestly can't pin down what occurs Monday.  The currencies will lead the show.  I honestly don't know if the S&P downgrade will strengthen the USD or weaken it.  If it weakens it, we could actually have a significant market rally from this location.

Below are my charts from:
3-25-11
3-31-11
4-10-11
4-18-11
These are excellent to review to see how they turned out.  I am still undecided if the technical top was early May or in July.  It will affect my count in the future.  If we breach 1140, I will start counting internal wave structure again to see if I can locate where it will bounce.  I would not be suprised to see it bounce exactly on 1140.  Once  a bounce occurs, I will be able to dial in exactly how big this move will be.  First guess is 2008 was A down, the last 2.5 years were B up, and now we are beginning C down.

Overall, a couple of my ideas/counts came pretty close.

Test

Test

The Razor's Edge (S&P 1300)

We are tip toeing along The Razor's Edge this week. It can be seen as the red line in my charts. If we break the S&P 1300 to the downside tomorrow, the damage could become severe. A close below 1290 should assure more downside.

The first two charts depict such a scenario. The last chart depicts a close above 1300.

Pondering Space and the Doppler Effect/Red Shift

I had some random thoughts about our Universe when I got home from work. Enjoy!

What if the Universe isn't expanding at an accelerating rate? What if our Galaxy is currently undergoing an ever increasing mass as our Galaxy is cannibilizing and consolidating another galaxy near it's edge. As the center of our galaxy grows in mass, the fabric of space-time becomes more and more disrupted. As this singularity grows in mass at an accelerated rate, the distance across the fabric of space-time appears to be growing at an accelerated rate as well.

Thus making everything outside our Galaxy look like it is moving further and further away from us.

Thus making every Galaxy that is consolidating look like it is moving further and further away from each other Galaxy.

Scheduled turn between 1360 and 1380

I have a scheduled turn between 1360 and 1380 in short time. Two of the ideas have remained unchanged for a month and one of those original ideas has been slightly modified.

Technical Analysis only please. I will post economic ideas later, including oil, gold, and SILVER.