Technical Analysis only please. I will post economic ideas later, including oil, gold, and SILVER.
Monday, May 2, 2011
Scheduled turn between 1360 and 1380
I have a scheduled turn between 1360 and 1380 in short time. Two of the ideas have remained unchanged for a month and one of those original ideas has been slightly modified.
Technical Analysis only please. I will post economic ideas later, including oil, gold, and SILVER.
Technical Analysis only please. I will post economic ideas later, including oil, gold, and SILVER.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Chicken Bones and Entrails
The only safe play I see right now is selling hard through a breach of 1250. It is very probable that we are range bound until June. I can see this quarter seeing a significant amount of Options, both PUTS and CALLS, expiring into worthless pieces of paper as the Theta is burnt to a crisp. I imagine this will be the option writer's last season with a major killing, for a very long time. 
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Another assault on new highs ???
S & P 1280 appears to have held. The way in which it did so was quite odd. And it did so at a point where it appeared like the whole world was falling apart. The move off the 1250 shows strength, strength that I don't understand and strength that I refuse to touch. ........so more waiting. Zzzzzzz So more top calling from me in the future.
Colleagues and I have 1350 as our next S & P target, and it should be rather quick.(less than a month) Tomorrow or Monday we expect a "gap up." A gap up over the 1310 marker will verify this smaller degree of the count is correct. (Wave 3's are recognition waves, waves that make you say "Oh Boy" are easier to recognize than explaining the math behind them)
A large amount of volume poured in at the end of the trading day. A Big Player knows something and is front running it. I have no clue what it is yet. Wonder if it involves discussion about a Quantitative Easening #3 and a further slaughter of our US Dollar.
My only play right now is sell through a break down of 1280. I'll treat the move towards 1350 as a fireworks show and nothing more.
Colleagues and I have 1350 as our next S & P target, and it should be rather quick.(less than a month) Tomorrow or Monday we expect a "gap up." A gap up over the 1310 marker will verify this smaller degree of the count is correct. (Wave 3's are recognition waves, waves that make you say "Oh Boy" are easier to recognize than explaining the math behind them)
A large amount of volume poured in at the end of the trading day. A Big Player knows something and is front running it. I have no clue what it is yet. Wonder if it involves discussion about a Quantitative Easening #3 and a further slaughter of our US Dollar.
My only play right now is sell through a break down of 1280. I'll treat the move towards 1350 as a fireworks show and nothing more.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Fraud: Washington State Bill SB5272
Non-technical special, from Karl Denninger:
In Washington State there is a bill pending, SB 5275, which has as its title "Protecting and assisting homeowners from unnecessary foreclosures." However, buried in the text of the bill is the following:
7 (a) That, for residential real estate property, before the notice of trustee's sale is recorded, transmitted, or served, the trustee shall have proof that the beneficiary (bank) is the owner of the promissory note or obligation secured by the deed of trust. A declaration by the beneficiary (bank) made under penalty of perjury stating that the beneficiary (bank) is the actual holder of the promissory note or other obligation secured by the deed of trust shall be sufficient proof as required under this subsection.
What's the significance of this section? Simple: No proof need be offered that the bank actually holds the note or obligation. A simple declaration that they are in possession is sufficient. If you're in possession of something as simple as a piece of paper, why would not present the actual paper to the court? There's only one reason to "declare" rather than "prove" - you don't have it.
This bill before the Washington State Legislature explicitly permits the filing of perjured documents and the ejecting of homeowners into the street through fraudulent foreclosures. That which has been bad will, if this bill passes, become even worse. Remember from the above: 150,000 counts of perjury, zero indictments. One can only assume that lying about having the loan document will be prosecuted just as often as lying about reading the papers one submits to the court. That is, never.
In summary, the banks have bundled up these deeds of homes into various investment vehicles and have sold them off numerous times. Banks can no longer track down the physical deeds that are required by law in the event of a foreclosure.
In Washington State there is a bill pending, SB 5275, which has as its title "Protecting and assisting homeowners from unnecessary foreclosures." However, buried in the text of the bill is the following:
7 (a) That, for residential real estate property, before the notice of trustee's sale is recorded, transmitted, or served, the trustee shall have proof that the beneficiary (bank) is the owner of the promissory note or obligation secured by the deed of trust. A declaration by the beneficiary (bank) made under penalty of perjury stating that the beneficiary (bank) is the actual holder of the promissory note or other obligation secured by the deed of trust shall be sufficient proof as required under this subsection.
What's the significance of this section? Simple: No proof need be offered that the bank actually holds the note or obligation. A simple declaration that they are in possession is sufficient. If you're in possession of something as simple as a piece of paper, why would not present the actual paper to the court? There's only one reason to "declare" rather than "prove" - you don't have it.
This bill before the Washington State Legislature explicitly permits the filing of perjured documents and the ejecting of homeowners into the street through fraudulent foreclosures. That which has been bad will, if this bill passes, become even worse. Remember from the above: 150,000 counts of perjury, zero indictments. One can only assume that lying about having the loan document will be prosecuted just as often as lying about reading the papers one submits to the court. That is, never.
In summary, the banks have bundled up these deeds of homes into various investment vehicles and have sold them off numerous times. Banks can no longer track down the physical deeds that are required by law in the event of a foreclosure.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Glimpse of Reality ???
Will the people of the world continue to notice the implications of Global Insolvency this week? My guess is people will wake up to more chaos in poorer nations and that the problem may come home to roost in the US, with State Governments also becoming insolvent. What it does to the Global Economic Markets is left to be seen. God knows I am surprised they have held up this long!!!
Interesting actions in the futures and currency markets tonight, with a sell off in the futures and the EURO actions becoming violent. The Gold line that depics the 8 month trend still has yet to be broken. Stuff won't get too interesting until the 1300 marker is broken on the S&P, as marked by the oval. The gap down in the morning should at least make things interesting. I will keep my eye on Apple to see if the building is truly burning.
Interesting actions in the futures and currency markets tonight, with a sell off in the futures and the EURO actions becoming violent. The Gold line that depics the 8 month trend still has yet to be broken. Stuff won't get too interesting until the 1300 marker is broken on the S&P, as marked by the oval. The gap down in the morning should at least make things interesting. I will keep my eye on Apple to see if the building is truly burning.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Intermediate Top Is In
I can almost comfortably say that after today's move we are done. It is not official until the yellow line is broken in the attached chart, but I really like my chances. I expect it to be broken on Monday's open. (I was only 1 day off on my turn date.)
Waiting for a pattern to show up such as this, has really been boring the last 5 months. This is called an ending diagonal and it is a terminal pattern. To verify it as such, it must retrace the whole pattern's move in less time than it took to make. (I would expect the full retrace in a 1/3 of the time)
Around the world SHTF once again. Fundamental traders will point to the last crash being caused by Greek riots. This one will be pinned on Egypt's riots. The charts tell me that these moves are inevitable. The Kingdome is broke and all our emporers have no clothes. I think most people have that nudging feeling in the back of their heads that things aren't as they seem, and will most likely get worse, much worse. The charts tell me that nudging feeling is justified.
In a manner similar to the end of August, I will be focusing my attention on the confluence area between 1120 to 1200 to determine if we have truly terminated the much larger move.
I believe we still reside within the last Hindenburg Omens confirmation. Probabilities are as follows:
A move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was historically 77% within 40 trading days.
The probability of a panic sellout was 41% within 40 trading days.
The probability of a major stock market crash was 24% within 40 trading days.
Like the last Hindenburg Omen showed, these are probabilities. The last intermediate top did satisfy the 5% decline, but it was not The Big One I have been hunting for.
Waiting for a pattern to show up such as this, has really been boring the last 5 months. This is called an ending diagonal and it is a terminal pattern. To verify it as such, it must retrace the whole pattern's move in less time than it took to make. (I would expect the full retrace in a 1/3 of the time)
Around the world SHTF once again. Fundamental traders will point to the last crash being caused by Greek riots. This one will be pinned on Egypt's riots. The charts tell me that these moves are inevitable. The Kingdome is broke and all our emporers have no clothes. I think most people have that nudging feeling in the back of their heads that things aren't as they seem, and will most likely get worse, much worse. The charts tell me that nudging feeling is justified.
In a manner similar to the end of August, I will be focusing my attention on the confluence area between 1120 to 1200 to determine if we have truly terminated the much larger move.
I believe we still reside within the last Hindenburg Omens confirmation. Probabilities are as follows:
A move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was historically 77% within 40 trading days.
The probability of a panic sellout was 41% within 40 trading days.
The probability of a major stock market crash was 24% within 40 trading days.
Like the last Hindenburg Omen showed, these are probabilities. The last intermediate top did satisfy the 5% decline, but it was not The Big One I have been hunting for.
Monday, January 10, 2011
We are approaching an Intermediate Top
When 1040 S&P held, I knew to watch for more upside. I knew it was going to take some time to find a new recognizable pattern, just didnt know it would take the rest of 2010. No way did I believe we would be putting in new highs. Wow!! Grats Cooper for his winnin bet. His prognostication definitely conquered mine in 2010.
The pattern shaping up now is a 5-wave ending diagonal. This pattern is pretty reliable. I have the intermediate top between here and 1300 before the end of the month. The way I will confirm the move is over, is by a break of the yellow bottom trendline. I can't nail down the exact time and date much better because the internal wave structure on the smaller time frames is unlike anything I have seen.
This area probably marks the 7th top call I have had in two years where I believe a stock market crash is possible. A second Hindenburg Omen was triggered a couple weeks ago as well. The one that no one believes in just might be the one that gets em.
The pattern shaping up now is a 5-wave ending diagonal. This pattern is pretty reliable. I have the intermediate top between here and 1300 before the end of the month. The way I will confirm the move is over, is by a break of the yellow bottom trendline. I can't nail down the exact time and date much better because the internal wave structure on the smaller time frames is unlike anything I have seen.
This area probably marks the 7th top call I have had in two years where I believe a stock market crash is possible. A second Hindenburg Omen was triggered a couple weeks ago as well. The one that no one believes in just might be the one that gets em.
Some people believe we are recovering. I am definitely not one of those people.
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